India’s export engine had a very good September, at least on the goods side. Merchandise exports jumped 23% from a year earlier, the trade deficit shrank, and the government says the momentum is building. There is one soft spot, though: services exports, usually the dependable part of the story, edged down.

The headline numbers

According to data released by the Commerce Ministry on 15 October:

• Merchandise exports: $44.40 billion in September 2026, up 23.04% from $36.08 billion a year earlier.
• Merchandise imports: $74.61 billion, up from $69.08 billion, an increase of about 8%.
• Merchandise trade deficit: $30.21 billion, narrower than $33 billion in September last year.
• Overall exports, goods and services combined: an estimated $80.75 billion, up 10.99% from $72.76 billion.
• Combined trade deficit (goods and services): $13.30 billion, down from $14.17 billion.

Two ways to read the deficit

The deficit story depends on what you compare it with. Against September last year, it narrowed. Against August, it widened to $26.86 billion. The ministry attributes the year-on-year narrowing in part to a dip in imports of precious metals, even as crude oil imports rose about 31%.

What drove the growth

The Commerce Secretary, Rajesh Agrawal, pointed to higher shipments of electronic goods, petroleum products, engineering goods, chemicals and agricultural products. He also said export growth had accelerated in the second quarter of the financial year, and that overall exports of $242.6 billion in July to September were the highest ever for a second quarter. Cumulative merchandise exports for April to September 2026-27 rose to $259.89 billion from $219.30 billion a year earlier. Agrawal said that if the trend continues, merchandise exports could cross $500 billion in 2026-27.

The services dip

The ministry’s totals imply a small drop in services exports. By our arithmetic, services exports come to roughly $36.35 billion (the $80.75 billion total minus $44.40 billion of goods), against about $36.68 billion a year earlier, a dip of roughly 1%. That is small, but notable because services have been a steady performer. These are the government’s estimates, and the central bank’s actual services data had only been released up to August, so the September figure could be revised.

What about the US and the UAE?

Your headline mentions a 48% jump in exports to the US and a 12% fall to the UAE in September. We did not find country-wise September 2026 figures in the reports we reviewed, so we can’t confirm them. There is useful context, though. In September 2025, India’s exports to the US fell almost 12% to $5.46 billion after Washington imposed steep tariffs, so September 2026 is being measured against a low base. A large percentage gain would be consistent with that, but we are not stating the figure as confirmed. The same applies to the UAE.

The bigger picture

The headline is encouraging: more exports, a smaller yearly deficit and a record second quarter. The caution is that the first-half deficit has widened to $177.64 billion from $156.88 billion in April to September last year, because imports, especially crude, have also grown. The strength of exports is real, but so is the pressure from the import bill, which is being driven by high oil prices.

What happens next

October’s trade data, due next month, will show whether the export surge is holding. We will also be watching services data from the central bank and the outcome of India-US trade talks. We will update this article as new figures come in.

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