The Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir marked a significant milestone, paving the way for the region’s first elected government since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019.
"Omar Abdullah will become the next Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir," announced National Conference leader Farooq Abdullah after a strong performance in the state elections. The Congress-National Conference alliance secured 47 of 90 seats, with 41 seats going to the NC and 6 to Congress, crossing the majority mark. Vote counting started at 8 am under tight security. The elections, held in three phases on September 18, 25, and October 1, marked the first assembly polls since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019. Voter turnout was 63.88%, according to the Election Commission of India.
Exit Poll Predictions: A Neck-and-Neck Race
Exit polls suggested that no single party would secure the majority mark of 46 seats in the 90-member Assembly. However, several pollsters gave the edge to the Congress-NC alliance, projecting at least 35 seats for the coalition. The BJP, although expected to retain dominance in Jammu, was predicted to secure around 20 seats, with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) predicted to gain just 4-7 seats. Two major trends surfaced from these predictions: the near decimation of the PDP and the BJP's continued influence in the Jammu region.
Here’s a breakdown of exit poll projections:
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Peoples Pulse: The Congress-NC alliance is expected to cross the majority mark with 46-50 seats, followed by the BJP with 23-27 seats, and the PDP with 7-11 seats.
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Dainik Bhaskar: The Congress-NC is predicted to secure 35-40 seats, the BJP 20-25 seats, and the PDP 4-7 seats.
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India Today-C Voter: This poll predicted the BJP would win the highest vote share of 41%, securing 27-31 seats in Jammu. The Congress-NC alliance was expected to gain 11-15 seats with a 37% vote share, while the PDP was predicted to secure 0-2 seats with just 4% of the vote.
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NDTV Poll of Polls: The Congress-NC alliance was predicted to win 43 seats, followed by the BJP with 27, and the PDP with 8. The remaining 18 seats were projected to go to smaller parties.
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Axis My India: This poll gave the Congress-NC alliance 35-45 seats, followed by the BJP with 24-34 seats, the PDP with 4-6, and smaller parties with 8-23 seats.
Voter Turnout: A Strong Response Across Phases
The voter turnout across all three phases of the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections was a key indicator of public engagement, surpassing previous trends.
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Phase 1: Recorded the highest turnout of 61.38%, the most significant in the last seven elections, as reported by Chief Electoral Officer P.K. Pole.
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Phase 2: Saw a 57.13% turnout, with peaceful voting between 7 a.m. and 6 p.m.
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Phase 3: The final phase witnessed an impressive 69.65% turnout, with traditionally low-participation districts like Sopore and Baramulla recording their highest turnout in 30 years.
Know Your Key Candidates in the Assembly Battle
Understanding the key players in the elections provides insight into the potential dynamics of the new government. Below are the prominent candidates and their respective constituencies:
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Ganderbal: Omar Abdullah (National Conference) vs. Sarjan Ahmad Wagay (Independent)
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Bijbehara: Iltija Mufti (PDP)
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Sopore: Aijaz Ahmad Guroo (Independent)
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Channapora: Syed Mohammad Altaf Bukhari (JKAP)
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Budgam: Omar Abdullah (National Conference)
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Baramulla: Muzaffar Hussain Baig (Independent)
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Kupwara: Sajad Lone (People’s Conference)
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Handwara: Sajad Lone (People’s Conference) vs. Chaudhary Mohammad Ramzan (National Conference)
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Nagrota: Devendra Singh Rana (BJP)
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Chhamb: Tara Chand (Indian National Congress)
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Nowshera: Ravinder Raina (BJP)
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Beerwah: Sarjan Ahmad Wagay (Independent)
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Central Shalteng: Tariq Hameed Karra (Indian National Congress)
-Omar Abdullah Secures Victory in Both Constituencies
Omar Abdullah, a prominent leader of the National Conference, has claimed victories in both Budgam and Ganderbal constituencies. He contested in two different seats during the elections. National Conference chief Farooq Abdullah expressed confidence, stating, "Omar Abdullah will become the chief minister."
-Final results:
-Jammu And Kashmir BJP President Ravinder Raina Resigns From Party Post
Ravinder Raina has resigned as the Jammu and Kashmir BJP President. He has led the Jammu and Kashmir BJP since 2018. He was a member of the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly from 2014 to 2018.
-Result tally at 3 pm
Here's how the result tally stands at 3pm:
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Congress + NC: 31 seats won, leading on 20
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BJP: 18 seats won, leading on 10
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JKPDP: 2 seats won
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Others: 5 seats won, leading on 4
-Full List of Winners from J&K
-Performance of Key Candidates
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Omar Abdullah (Budgam and Ganderbal): Omar Abdullah is currently leading in both Budgam and Ganderbal constituencies, showcasing his strong support base.
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Ravinder Raina (Nowshera): The BJP candidate, Ravinder Raina, is maintaining a leading position in the Nowshera constituency.
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Iltija Mufti (Bijbehara): Ilitja Mufti, representing the PDP in Bijbehara, is trailing behind her competitors.
-Close Contests and Emerging Leaders
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Javid Ahmad Qadri (Shopian): The BJP candidate in Shopian, South Kashmir, Javid Ahmad Qadri, is leading by a narrow margin of 500 votes.
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Shiekh Mohammad Rafi (Shopian): Representing the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference, Shiekh Mohammad Rafi is trailing by 458 votes in the Shopian constituency.
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Raja Abdul Waheed (Shopian): An Independent candidate in Shopian, Raja Abdul Waheed, is trailing by 681 votes in the 2024 Assembly Election Results.
-Election Commission’s Seat Tally
The Election Commission of India (ECI) has released the latest seat tally as follows:
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Jammu & Kashmir National Conference (JKN): 41 seats
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Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): 22 seats
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Indian National Congress (INC): 8 seats
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Independent (IND): 9 seats
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Jammu & Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party (JKPDP): 3 seats
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Jammu & Kashmir People Conference (JPC): 3 seats
-Congress Leading in 8 Seats
The Congress party is leading in 8 out of the 32 seats it contested. In partnership with the National Conference, the Congress-NC alliance has established a robust lead, surpassing the 46-seat majority required for governance.
-Apni Party Founder Altaf Bukhari Trailing
Altaf Bukhari, the founder of the Apni Party, is trailing in the Chanapora constituency of Jammu and Kashmir. In this race, NC’s Mushtaq Guroo has taken the lead, indicating challenges for the Apni Party in this area.
-BJP Struggles in Gurez: Fails to Make Inroads in the Valley
Early trends indicate that the BJP has once again struggled to secure a win in the Kashmir Valley. The Gurez assembly constituency, expected to be a stronghold for the BJP, has seen party candidate Faqeer Mohammad Khan trailing by over 1,500 votes behind the National Conference’s Nazir Ahmad Khan after two out of five counting rounds. This outcome is reflective of the prevailing dissatisfaction in the Valley following the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019 and the central government’s stringent Kashmir policies. Additionally, parties and independent candidates associated with the BJP have not managed to make a significant impact in the Valley.
-JKNC Leader Nazir Ahmad Khan Leads by Over 500 Votes
Nazir Ahmad Khan of the Jammu & Kashmir National Conference is leading in the Gurez constituency, one of the 90 constituencies in the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly. Gurez, part of the Baramulla Lok Sabha seat and reserved for Scheduled Tribes, is a pivotal battleground. In the 2014 legislative assembly elections, Nazir Ahmad Khan won with 6,664 votes against the Indian National Congress candidate Faqir Mohmad Khan, who secured 6,523 votes. This marks Nazir Ahmad Khan’s second consecutive victory, having also won the 2008 elections with 5,817 votes compared to 5,085 votes for Faqeer Ahmad Khan of the INC. As voting concluded on October 1 during the third phase, the results are highly anticipated and will be officially announced on October 8.
-Congress-NC Alliance Surpasses the Majority Threshold with 52 of 90 Seats
According to the latest trends reported by NDTV, the Congress-National Conference alliance has secured 52 out of the 90 seats in Jammu and Kashmir. The BJP follows with 23 seats, while the PDP holds 2 seats, and smaller parties account for the remaining 13 seats.
-Key Figures and Their Early Trends
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Omar Abdullah: The Vice President of the National Conference, Omar Abdullah, is maintaining a strong lead in both Ganderbal and Budgam constituencies.
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Ilitija Mufti: The PDP candidate from Bijbehara, Ilitija Mufti, is currently trailing in her race.
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Ravinder Raina: The BJP chief in Jammu and Kashmir, Ravinder Raina, is trailing in the Nowshera constituency, where NC’s Surinder Kumar leads by over 2,500 votes.
-Omar Abdullah Leading in Budgam and Ganderbal
Omar Abdullah is leading in both Budgam and Ganderbal seats. In Budgam, he holds a lead of 1,400 votes, while in Ganderbal, his lead stands at 622 votes. This dual leadership underscores his significant influence and the strength of the National Conference in these constituencies.
-NC-Congress Alliance Leading with 46 Seats
The National Conference-Congress alliance has emerged ahead with 46 seats in Jammu and Kashmir. The BJP follows with 23 seats, the PDP with 3 seats, and Independents lead in 8 seats. Specifically, the National Conference leads in 39 seats, while its ally Congress leads in 7 seats, as per trends released by the Election Commission for 64 of the 90 seats.
Other parties such as the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), CPI(M), People’s Conference, and the Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) are leading in one seat each, highlighting a diverse political landscape.
-Trends at 10 a.m.: NC Leading in 41 Seats, BJP in 22
By 10 a.m., the National Conference was leading in 41 seats, while the BJP led in 22 seats. The Congress is ahead in 8 seats, and the PDP leads in just 3 seats. Additionally, the J&K People’s Conference is leading in 3 seats, and Independents are ahead in 9 constituencies, indicating a fragmented but competitive electoral outcome.
-CPI(M) Gains Early Lead in Kulgam
The Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)] candidate, Mohammad Yousuf Tarigami, is currently leading in the Kulgam constituency, according to early trends. Under a seat-sharing agreement, the NC-Congress alliance allocated one seat to CPI(M) in the Kashmir region, and Tarigami’s lead reflects the effectiveness of this collaboration.
-PDP’s Iltija Mufti Trailing in Bijbehara
Iltija Mufti, representing the PDP from the Srigufwara-Biejbehara seat, is trailing by more than 1,842 votes against NC’s Bashir Ahmad Veeri. As the daughter of PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti, Ilitija’s performance is closely watched, and her current standing indicates challenges for the PDP in this constituency.
-Sajad Lone’s Mixed Results in Kupwara and Handwara
Sajad Lone, president of the People’s Conference and a candidate contesting from two seats, is experiencing mixed fortunes. He leads in the Handwara seat by a narrow margin of 390 votes but is trailing in Kupwara, as per Election Commission trends for Jammu and Kashmir. This dual contest highlights the competitive nature of the elections.
-Trends at 9:30 a.m.: NC Leading in 30 Seats, BJP in 18
By 9:30 a.m., the J&K National Conference was leading in 30 out of 64 seats showing early trends, while the BJP led in 18 seats. The Congress was ahead in 6 seats, and the J&K PDP led in 2 seats, indicating the ongoing tussle among major political forces.
-Congress-NC Alliance Crosses the Halfway Mark in Initial Trends
Initial trends from NDTV indicate that the Congress-NC alliance has crossed the majority threshold of 46 seats in Jammu and Kashmir, currently leading with 48 seats. The BJP follows with 26 seats, reflecting a strong performance by the alliance in the region.
-Early Overview: Congress Leading in 43 of 90 Seats, BJP Second with 27
According to NDTV’s early trends, the Congress and its alliance with the National Conference are leading in 43 out of the total 90 seats in Jammu and Kashmir. The BJP stands in second place with 27 seats, underscoring the competitive nature of the elections.
-Trends at 9 a.m.: BJP Leading in 5 Seats
At 9 a.m., the BJP was leading in 5 seats, the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference in 3 seats, and an Independent candidate held the lead in one seat, based on data from the Election Commission of India. These early results set the stage for the unfolding electoral drama.
-Early Trends: BJP and Congress-NC in a Tight Contest
As vote counting commenced at 8 a.m., postal ballots were being tallied first. Initial trends suggest that the Congress-NC alliance is maintaining a lead in Jammu and Kashmir, though the BJP remains a formidable contender, indicating a tightly contested election.
-Security Measures for Vote Counting Centers
In anticipation of the vote counting process, a three-tier security arrangement has been established for 28 counting centers across 20 districts in Jammu and Kashmir. An Election Commission official, quoted by news agency ANI, stated that comprehensive security cordons have been arranged around counting centers. The areas have been thoroughly sanitized, and force deployment has been ensured to maintain order and safety during the vote tallying process.
-Commencement of Vote Counting: Postal Ballots First
The vote counting for the 90-seat Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections began at 8 a.m. this morning, with postal ballots being counted initially. This structured approach ensures that all votes are accurately accounted for. By the end of the day, the region is set to elect its first government since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, marking a significant milestone as these are also the first assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir since 2014.
With inputs from agencies
Image Source: Multiple agencies
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