The political battleground of Bihar appears to be tilting decisively toward the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), as all major exit polls released on Tuesday predicted a clean sweep for the ruling alliance. The results indicate that the NDA, led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is all set to retain power with a commanding majority, while the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB) seems to be staring at a sharp decline in its seat share.

Exit Polls Predict a Resounding NDA Victory

Six major survey agencies — People’s Insight, People’s Pulse, Matrize, Dainik Bhaskar, PMRQ, and JVC’s Polls — have unanimously predicted that the NDA will comfortably cross the halfway mark in the 243-member Bihar Legislative Assembly.

Here’s a quick look at the seat projections from each pollster:

Collectively, these surveys project that the NDA could win around 148 seats, leaving the Mahagathbandhan far behind at around 88. The majority mark in the Assembly is 122 seats, giving the ruling alliance a comfortable edge.

Mahagathbandhan Faces Setback, Jan Suraaj Fizzles Out

For the opposition, led by Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Tejashwi Yadav, the projections paint a sobering picture. The Mahagathbandhan, which includes the RJD, Congress, and Left parties under the broader INDIA bloc, is predicted to secure between 70 and 102 seats — a significant dip compared to its 2020 performance when it had won 110 seats, with the RJD alone bagging 75.

Meanwhile, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, once viewed as a potential disruptor in Bihar’s political landscape, appears to have failed to make a mark in its electoral debut. Most pollsters estimate that the party could manage no more than 0–5 seats across the state, signalling a disappointing debut for the former poll strategist.

The exit polls were released soon after the second and final phase of voting concluded on November 11. The first phase was held on November 6, with the results scheduled for November 14.

Disclaimer: Exit polls are indicative and not always accurate. The final results, as the Election Commission reminds, will be declared on November 14, 2025.

Key Takeaways from Bihar Exit Polls 2025

1. NDA projected to win 147–160 seats according to most agencies, indicating a decisive majority.

2. Mahagathbandhan likely to get between 60–80 seats, marking a steep fall from its 2020 tally.

3. Jan Suraaj expected to draw a blank or win up to 5 seats, failing to establish a third front.

4. Majority mark: 122 seats in the 243-member Assembly.

5. Alliance composition:

   • NDA: BJP, JD(U), and LJP (Ram Vilas).

   • Opposition INDIA bloc: RJD, Congress, and Left parties, with Tejashwi Yadav as the chief ministerial face.

Record-Breaking Voter Turnout in Bihar

According to Chief Electoral Officer Vinod Singh Gunjiyal, the second phase of polling saw a record voter turnout of 68.79%, provisionally. The first phase, held earlier on November 6, had witnessed 65.08% participation.

The Election Commission of India (ECI) later confirmed that the overall voter turnout across both phases was 66.91%, the highest since 1951. Female voters turned out in significantly higher numbers (71.6%) compared to male voters (62.8%), underscoring growing participation among women in Bihar’s political process.

News18 Mega Exit Poll: JD(U) Emerges as the Strongest Force

According to the News18 Mega Exit Poll 2025, the NDA is projected to secure 145 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan trails behind with 90. A closer analysis suggests that Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) is likely to play a pivotal role in this victory, potentially winning around 65 seats, making it the largest single party in the alliance.

This would be a significant turnaround for the JD(U), which had managed just 43 seats in the 2020 elections. The BJP is expected to maintain its stronghold in urban constituencies, while the JD(U) appears to have consolidated its base across rural Bihar.

Political Reactions: NDA Jubilant, Opposition Dismissive

As soon as the exit polls were released, political reactions started pouring in from all sides — reflecting both celebration and skepticism.

• Vijay Kumar Sinha, Bihar’s Deputy Chief Minister and BJP candidate from Lakhisarai, said the exit polls merely hint at what’s to come.

  “People have shown faith in the leadership of Prime Minister Modi and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. We will surpass even the exit poll predictions when the actual results are declared,” he said.

• Janata Dal (United) claimed a “historic mandate” for the NDA.
  In a post on X (formerly Twitter), the party wrote:

  “Bihar has given the NDA a historic mandate. Now many will blame EVMs or find excuses for the defeat.”

• BJP leader Syed Shahnawaz Hussain took a dig at Congress and the INDIA bloc:

  “These exit polls prove that Rahul Gandhi has completely flopped. People voted for development, for Modi, and for Nitish Kumar.”

• On the other hand, Congress MP Tariq Anwar dismissed the exit polls altogether, saying:

  “Exit polls are not accurate. They are only speculative and cannot be considered final.”

• RJD’s Buxar MP Sudhakar Singh told PTI:

  “High voter turnout always signals anti-incumbency. We are confident the Mahagathbandhan will form the government. These exit polls are far from reality.”

• Congress spokesperson Supriya Shrinate echoed a similar sentiment:

  “Bihar will teach the ruling NDA a lesson. The people’s right to vote has been manipulated. We are confident of forming the government.”

Historical Perspective: How Accurate Were Past Exit Polls?

Exit polls in Bihar have historically been hit-or-miss. A look at the 2015 and 2020 assembly elections shows just how unpredictable the state’s voters can be.

2020 Elections

In 2020, nearly every major pollster had predicted a Mahagathbandhan victory:

• Times Now-CVoter forecasted 120 seats for the opposition versus 116 for NDA.

• India Today-My Axis went further, predicting a landslide for the Mahagathbandhan with 150 seats, giving NDA only about 80.

However, the actual results surprised everyone:

• NDA clinched 125 seats,

• Mahagathbandhan managed 110.

In retrospect, the polls underestimated the NDA by about 17 seats and overestimated the MGB by roughly 15.

2015 Elections

Back in 2015, the average of six exit polls predicted a razor-thin victory for the Mahagathbandhan with 122 seats — just one above the majority mark — while giving NDA 114.

When the results came out, the Mahagathbandhan swept the polls with 178 seats, while the NDA was reduced to just 58. Most pollsters had underestimated MGB’s strength by over 55 seats and overstated NDA’s performance by more than 50.

These precedents underline a simple truth: Bihar’s electorate often defies predictions, and exit polls, while insightful, rarely capture the full pulse of the state’s voters.

What Lies Ahead for Bihar

If the 2025 exit polls prove accurate, Bihar will witness another term of Nitish Kumar-led governance, supported by the BJP and LJP (Ram Vilas). The alliance appears to have maintained a strong hold over both rural and semi-urban voters, leveraging its focus on infrastructure, law and order, and social welfare schemes.

For Tejashwi Yadav and the Mahagathbandhan, however, the exit polls indicate the need for deep introspection. Despite high youth appeal and promises of employment, the alliance may not have succeeded in converting enthusiasm into votes. Meanwhile, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, though ambitious in vision, appears to have struggled to find electoral traction.

As Bihar awaits the official results on November 14, one question looms large — will the state’s history of surprising pollsters repeat itself, or will this time mark the return of a stable NDA regime led by Nitish Kumar?

With inputs from agencies

Image Source: Multiple agencies

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