Amidst much anticipation, the exit poll results for the assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, and Mizoram have been released. Numerous media outlets have presented their findings, with a spotlight on the projections shaping the political landscape. Foremost among these are the India Today-Axis My India and Jan Ki Baat exit polls, forecasting fierce competition between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh.
What is the Assembly election exit poll?
An exit poll is a survey method aimed at predicting election outcomes by querying voters about their voting preferences as they exit polling stations. This immediate survey post-voting is termed an 'exit poll'. The results of these polls are indicative of the potential assembly outcomes, serving as a significant gauge of India's political sentiment ahead of the forthcoming general assembly elections in 2024.
When were elections held in these states?
The five states witnessed their election schedules unfold as follows: Mizoram on November 7, Chhattisgarh on November 7 and November 17, Madhya Pradesh on November 17, Rajasthan on November 25, and Telangana on November 30.
When will the final result be out?
The conclusive and final declaration of results for all five states is set for December 3.
Significance of These Elections:
These state elections hold paramount importance as they precede the Lok Sabha polls scheduled for April-May the following year, setting the stage for the larger national political landscape.
Accuracy of Assembly Election Exit Polls:
Exit polls, while significant, have faced scrutiny due to instances of inaccuracy in the past. The discrepancy arises from respondents naming a candidate differing from their actual choice. Despite intense analysis and discourse, these predictions may not consistently align with the final results. The 2004 Lok Sabha elections serve as a poignant reminder, that despite exit polls favouring the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA government, the eventual outcome defied expectations.
Madhya Pradesh Signals Potential Change: Exit Poll Insights
The ABP-CVoter Exit Polls indicate a shift in Madhya Pradesh's political climate, suggesting Congress dominance.
In the 2018 elections, the Congress had won by a slim margin but lost power in 2020 due to defections to the BJP.
The current projections by ABP-CVoter strongly indicate that Congress securing a majority in the 230-seat assembly.
As per the Exit Poll projections, the Congress is estimated to win between 113 and 137 seats, with 116 being the simple majority mark.
Telangana Voter Turnout:
The voter turnout in Telangana stood at approximately 64% until the closing of polls.
Close contest in Madhya Pradesh:
Madhya Pradesh: The exit polls paint a closely contested scenario, with Jan Ki Baat projecting 100-123 seats for the BJP and 102-125 seats for the Congress. TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat predicts 106-116 seats for the BJP and 111-121 seats for the Congress. Republic TV-Matrize foresees 118-130 seats for BJP and 97-107 seats for the Congress, while Dainik Bhaskar estimates 95-115 seats for the BJP and 105-120 seats for the Congress.
BRS Lodges Complaint on Alleged Use of 'Deepfake' Technology by Congress in Telangana Campaign:
The BRS in Telangana has filed a complaint with the Election Commission (EC), alleging the Congress employed 'deepfake' technology to fabricate content targeting BRS president K Chandrasekhar Rao and other prominent party leaders and candidates during the state's Assembly elections.
Parties Exploring Strategies Amidst Diverse Exit Poll Indicators
In Rajasthan, where exit polls indicate a close race, the BJP and Congress are gearing up for last-minute manoeuvres to secure an edge.
What do the exit polls for elections in five states suggest?
- Rajasthan: Signals point towards a potential return to power for the BJP.
- Chhattisgarh: The Congress appears to lead the electoral race.
- Madhya Pradesh: Forecasts depict a fierce battle between the BJP and Congress.
- Telangana: A potential shift in power, indicating challenges for KCR.
- Mizoram: MNF might face a setback against the ZPM party.
โโโโExit poll results of 5 states:
Exit polls in five states have revealed intriguing insights into the potential outcomes of the elections. Here are the significant takeaways:
Telangana:
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Congress appears poised for a potential upset in Telangana, potentially displacing the incumbent Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) from power. If predictions hold, it would mark a significant shift from K Chandrashekar Rao's dominance since the state's formation in 2014. This could be the first major change since KCR's party, initially formed in 2001 for a separate state, transitioned to become the Bharat Rashtra Samithi.
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Various exit polls offer divergent predictions, with India TV-CNX foreseeing 63-79 seats for Congress, Jan ki Baat predicting 48-64 seats, and other polls projecting close contests between Congress and BRS, while BJP trails behind.
Pic Source: Economic Times
Madhya Pradesh:
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Most exit polls favour the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, although the Congress leadership has questioned these predictions, citing past inaccuracies in exit poll projections.
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Predictions by different exit polls vary, with India Today-Axis My India foreseeing a BJP retention with 140-162 seats, while other polls project varying seat counts for both BJP and Congress.
Pic Source: Economic Times
Rajasthan:
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Rajasthan is expected to witness a fierce battle between BJP and Congress, potentially necessitating the involvement of smaller parties and independent candidates in forming the government.
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Exit polls indicate a closely contested scenario, with different predictions highlighting significant disparities in projected seat counts for BJP and Congress.
Pic Source: Economic Times
Chhattisgarh:
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The Congress is likely to maintain its hold on Chhattisgarh, with BJP as a close second, according to exit polls. The incumbent Chief Minister is confident in an increase in the Congress's seat count.
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Exit polls show varying estimates, with Congress predicted to secure a range of seats and closely trailing BJP across different polls.
Pic Source: Economic Times
Mizoram:
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Mizoram may witness a sweeping victory for the Zoram People's Movement (ZPM), potentially displacing the Mizo National Front (MNF) from power, with Congress and BJP trailing behind significantly.
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Diverse exit poll predictions suggest a significant shift in power dynamics, with ZPM anticipated to secure a substantial number of seats compared to MNF, according to different polls.
Pic Source: Economic Times
The exit poll results indicate intriguing possibilities, with varying outcomes projected across different states, setting the stage for an eventful and closely watched election outcome.
Read here for more details:
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Assembly Election Updates: MP Records Over 76.22% & Chhattisgarh Sees 75.08% Voter Turnout
Assembly Elections Update: Secrecy Breach Prompts Re-Polling In One Madhya Pradesh Booth Today
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