U.S. 2024 Elections: Trump Leads Harris in Key Swing States
With the 2024 Presidential Election looming on November 5, polls are closing in on the critical swing states that often decide the outcome of the election. A new AtlasIntel poll reported this week has former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in all seven of these battleground states. The poll contacted almost 2,500 likely voters at the beginning of November and showed that, across the country, Trump is leading Harris by a margin of 1.8%.
Donald Trump
Kamala Harris
Trump Lead all Swing States
The new polls reveal that Trump has a lead over Harris across all the swing states in question: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Historically, states that are termed swing states are usually critical in the general outcome of presidential elections. Among the states, Arizona takes the lead with 51.9% supporting Trump, compared to 45.1% Harris. The state of Nevada fits this model, where Trump receives 51.4% of the vote to Harris' 45.9%. North Carolina is a much closer race, with Trump holding 50.4% of the vote while Harris receives 46.8%.
In swing states, uncertainty plays a big role because the traditionally Republican-leaning "Red States" and Democratic-leaning "Blue States" tend not to shift their votes. These competitive battleground states are what both candidates spend so much time campaigning for.
The actual decision will be made by the Electoral College on November 5, when Americans go out to cast their votes. The number of electoral votes that each state gets is predetermined, calculated on the basis of the state's population and the members it has in the Congress. To win the presidency, a candidate must have at least 270 out of 538 total electoral votes.
In the "winner-takes-all" system employed by most states, all of a state's electoral votes are awarded to the candidate who wins the most votes in that state. This has resulted in some candidates winning the presidency without receiving the most popular votes. Such was the case in 2016 when Donald Trump received 306 electoral votes and Hillary Clinton received nearly 3 million more popular votes.
Election Day and Results Timeline
Voting starts on November 5, but because of the time difference, results will start to trickle in as the day goes by. Most US polling stations will close between 7 p.m. and 11 p.m. EST. The battleground states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina are most likely to report their results early in the evening.
However, Pennsylvania and Nevada, for example, may not report their election results at the same time because of their election statutes. Mail-in ballots are only counted on Election Day in Pennsylvania; final results could take days. Similarly, Nevada allows late-arriving mail ballots that can delay its results.
A Tight Contest in Store
Donald Trump is leading ahead in swing states, though polls are always dangerous when elections approach their end. The most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll indicated that Harris leads Trump by only 1%. That means the race remains extremely competitive. Both candidates have been holding rallies in the states as they bid for Electoral College votes to determine who becomes president.
Whoever wins this election will be officially confirmed after the Electoral College vote in December and inaugurated as president on January 20, 2025.
With inputs from agencies
Image Source: Multiple agencies
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