Kathmandu/New Delhi, October 15: Nepal’s Prime Minister Balen Shah is expected to travel to India in November, and it will be his first bilateral visit since taking office. He will hold delegation-level talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The choice stands out because of what came before. His predecessor, KP Sharma Oli, went to China first, breaking the long-standing habit of Nepali prime ministers calling on Delhi before anywhere else.

Where things stand

Shah was sworn in on March 27. Officials in Kathmandu and New Delhi have started preparing for a visit in the second week of the Nepali month of Mangsir, which is late November. Some reports say he will be in India from November 23 to 25, but the Prime Minister’s Office and the Foreign Ministry say no date has been confirmed. The Foreign Ministry spokesperson has said preparations are under way.

The trip is expected to last three days, and Shah is unlikely to go beyond New Delhi. Besides Modi, he will meet other senior Indian ministers.

Modi phoned to congratulate him soon after the swearing-in and invited him to visit when convenient. Shah accepted, but he said at first that he would not travel abroad in his first year. After months of discussions, he changed his mind. He has been overseas once already, to the UN General Assembly in September with Foreign Minister Shishir Khanal, so this is his first bilateral trip and not his first foreign one.

What the two sides are likely to discuss

The agenda is long, according to reports. Shah is expected to ask how India can help Nepal recover from the recent floods, after India stepped in to help during the crisis.

Energy will feature, including the Lower Arun hydropower project, the long-stalled Pancheshwar Multipurpose Project and a petroleum pipeline from Siliguri in India to Jhapa in Nepal. There could also be a ceremony or two. The integrated check post at Bhairahawa near the Sunauli crossing, another check post in far western Nepal and the India-funded Nepal Police Academy at Panauti are all possible occasions.

A senior Nepali official has said there are “serious and thorny issues” to raise, among them air routes through India and Nepal’s trade deficit with its neighbour. The Kalapani boundary dispute is expected to come up as well, though no breakthrough is expected. India has said Nepal’s claim to the area has no basis.

Nepal’s Finance Minister, Swarnim Wagle, has recently been in Delhi to prepare the ground. The visit also came up when the Indian Army chief visited Nepal and met Shah.

Why it matters

For decades, a Nepali prime minister’s first trip has been read as a signal about where Kathmandu’s priorities lie. Oli’s decision to go to Beijing first was widely seen as a break with the old pattern. By choosing Delhi, Shah is going back to it, though nobody in his government has described it as a rejection of China.

Nepal sits between two giants and relies on India for trade, transit and energy. Shah has kept a low profile on foreign policy so far. This visit will be the first real glimpse of how he plans to balance the two.

The itinerary, the schedule of meetings and any agreements to be signed have not been announced. Whether the trip delivers anything concrete on flood recovery and energy, or turns out mostly to be a goodwill visit, will become clear once the joint statement is out.

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