As India gears up for the end of monsoon season, meteorologists are warning of an unusual and potentially severe winter ahead. The reason? A likely return of La Niña, the powerful climate phenomenon that cools the Pacific Ocean and disrupts weather systems across the globe. Experts believe that if La Niña develops later this year, India could experience one of its coldest winters in decades, affecting everything from agriculture to energy demand.

What is La Niña?

La Niña is the cooler counterpart of El Niño in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. It occurs when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean fall significantly below average, leading to major shifts in atmospheric circulation. These changes ripple across continents, altering rainfall, storm patterns, jet streams, and wind currents.

For India, the consequences are significant:

• Colder-than-average winters due to strong northerly winds

• Prolonged cold waves disrupting daily life and agriculture

• Increased snowfall in the Himalayan belt, with both benefits and risks

Although La Niña often supports better monsoon rains, its appearance in the post-monsoon season usually sets the stage for harsher winters across large parts of Asia.

La Niña Watch Issued: CPC and IMD Sound the Alarm

On September 11, 2025, the US National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) officially issued a La Niña Watch, estimating a 71% probability of La Niña developing between October and December 2025. The probability decreases slightly to 54% between December 2025 and February 2026, but the alert has captured global attention.

For the United States, La Niña winters usually mean drier conditions in the south and stormier weather in the north. But halfway across the globe, its impacts may be even more disruptive.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its latest ENSO bulletin, confirmed that the Pacific is currently neutral, but climate models, including the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS), suggest a strong chance of La Niña emerging post-monsoon.

A senior IMD official stated:

“Our models show a good probability of La Niña developing during Oct–Dec this year (over 50%). La Niña is usually associated with colder winters in India. While the warming effect of climate change can offset this to some extent, winters during La Niña years tend to be colder compared to years without it. This year overall may not rank among the hottest, as monsoon rainfall has already kept temperatures under control.”

This means that although 2025 might not become one of India’s hottest years overall, the winter months may be exceptionally cold.

Private Forecasters Echo Concerns

Private weather agencies are also closely monitoring Pacific Ocean cooling trends. GP Sharma, President of Skymet Weather, highlighted that while conditions have not yet met the technical threshold of La Niña (–0.5°C anomalies sustained over three overlapping quarters), ongoing cooling is already influencing global systems.

Sharma explained:

“The Pacific Ocean is already cooler than average, although it hasn’t crossed the La Niña threshold of –0.5°C anomalies sustained across three overlapping quarters. A short-lived La Niña episode was recorded in late 2024, between November and January, before conditions turned neutral. Even without meeting the technical benchmarks, ongoing cooling can influence global climate systems. The US is already preparing for drier winters if La Niña sets in. For India, cooler Pacific waters usually mean harsher winters and increased snowfall in the north and Himalayan regions.”

This underlines that even a weak or short-lived La Niña could have significant consequences for India’s winter.

Scientific Studies Back the Predictions

The warnings are not without scientific backing. A 2024 study by the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER), Mohali, in collaboration with Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research, established strong links between La Niña and intense cold waves in north India.

The study found that:

• During La Niña, a low-level cyclonic anomaly develops, funnelling icy winds from higher latitudes into India.

• This results in more frequent and longer cold wave events compared to neutral or El Niño years.

In simpler terms, La Niña winters “pack an extra punch”, bringing stronger winds and prolonged spells of icy weather.

How La Niña Could Impact Winter 2025–26 in India

If La Niña develops as predicted, experts foresee:

• Severe cold waves across northern and central India

• Extended frost periods, threatening crops like wheat, mustard, and vegetables

• Heavy snowfall in the Himalayas, replenishing rivers and reservoirs but disrupting travel and tourism

• Lower seasonal temperature averages, balancing out the extreme heat recorded earlier this year

For farmers, these conditions could be a mixed bag. Colder weather sometimes benefits wheat yields in northern India, but extended frost could damage sensitive crops. For urban and rural residents, longer and harsher winters could strain healthcare systems, heating demand, and energy supply chains.

Delhi-NCR and Northern India on Alert

The National Capital Region (Delhi, Gurgaon, Noida, Ghaziabad, and Faridabad) may see an unusually severe winter if forecasts hold true. Historically, La Niña winters in India have been marked by biting cold, fog, and frost that paralyse daily life. With both US and Indian meteorological agencies tracking Pacific cooling, residents are being cautioned to brace for longer, harsher, and colder conditions than in recent years.

Global and Regional Outlook

Adding to the concerns, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stated earlier in September 2025 that La Niña may re-emerge soon and affect climate patterns worldwide. However, despite La Niña’s cooling effects, global average temperatures are expected to remain above normal due to the background influence of climate change.

For India, this suggests a unique contrast: while summers and annual averages may continue trending warmer, winter 2025–26 could be sharply colder and harsher than usual.

Brace for a Severe Winter

From Delhi to the Himalayan belt, experts are warning of a winter unlike recent years. With a 71% chance of La Niña developing this October–December, and mounting scientific evidence linking La Niña to cold waves in India, the likelihood of a historic winter chill is high.

Whether weak or strong, even a brief La Niña episode could intensify cold spells, frost, and snowfall across north India. For millions of residents, this means preparing for a season that could test agriculture, energy resources, public health, and daily life.

As experts put it: brace for a winter that may be colder, longer, and harsher than India has seen in decades.

With inputs from agencies

Image Source: Multiple agencies

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