According to a recent UNFPA report, India's elderly population is growing at an unprecedented rate and will surpass that of children by the second half of the century, highlighting how the country's young population will rapidly age in the years to come. India has one of the highest rates of youth and adolescence worldwide currently.
"By the end of the century, the elderly will constitute over 36 per cent of the total population of the country. Sharp growth in the elderly population is observed from 2010 onwards along with a decline in the age group of below 15 years, indicating rapidity of ageing in India," the report said.
According to the UNFPA's "India Ageing Report 2023," the share of the old (60+ years) population is expected to rise from 10.1% in 2021 to 15% in 2036 to 20.8 per cent in 2050.
"Four years before 2050, the population size of the elderly in India will be higher than the population size of children aged 0-14 years. By that time, the population share of 15-59 years will also see a dip. Undoubtedly, the relatively young India today will turn into a rapidly ageing society in the coming decades," it added.
Given the various stages and paces of demographic transition between states, one distinctive aspect of ageing in India is the large interstate difference in absolute levels and growth (and hence, share) of the senior population.
The majority of the southern states and a few northern states, like Himachal Pradesh and Punjab, reported older populations than the national average in 2021; this difference is estimated to grow by 2036, according to the research.
While states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, which have lower life expectancy rates and are behind in demographic transition, anticipate an increase in the share of the old population between 2021 and 2036, the level will still be lower than the national average in India, the survey stated.
As per the report, India has seen moderate to rapid decadal growth in its old population since 1961. Prior to 2001, the pace was certainly slower, but it is expected to pick up significantly in the years that follow.
"The decadal growth of the elderly population in India declined slightly from 32 per cent between 1961 and 1971 to 31 per cent in 1981-1991. Growth picked up pace during 1991-2001 (35 per cent) and is projected to shoot to 41 per cent between 2021 and 2031," the report stated.
According to population projections for 2021, there are 39 older people for every 100 children in India, the report indicated.
(Photo: Akhilesh Kumar)
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