Elections in Maharashtra are due on November 20 and given the kind of political commotion the state had witnessed in mid-2022 when the government led by Uddhav Thackeray collapsed after the undivided Shiv Sena imploded, the stakes are even higher this time. Elections in Maharashtra are always a major event, given the fact that the state is one of India’s biggest and most developed ones, but over the years, they have increasingly become a prestige battle between not only the two national parties – Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Indian National Congress (INC) – but also regional ones such as the two factions of both the Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).
While eyes will mainly be on the two major alliances – the Congress-Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena-Sharad Pawar’s NCP-led MVA (Maha Vikas Aghadi) and Maha Yuti comprising the BJP, Sena led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and the NCP captained by Ajit Pawar – the observers will remain interested about how Raj Thackeray and his Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) do in this key election.
MNS election candidate from Mahim, Mumbai, Amit Thackeray (in white), son of party chief Raj Thackeray at an event (Source: Amit Thackeray Twitter handle @amitrthackeray)
MNS, BJP inch closer
Thackeray decided against contesting the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year and offered ‘unconditional’ support to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance in Maharashtra. While he has not announced any alliance with the BJP for the upcoming Assembly elections, he expressed confidence that the saffron party would form the next government. He even said the MNS would be a part of that government.
When it came to fielding candidates, the MNS leadership has chosen 25 seats in Mumbai. However, its decision not to contest in the rest fuelled speculation that aimed to give the Maha Yuti candidates a strategic advantage. The BJP is set to back in Mahim Thackeray’s son Amit, who will make his electoral debut, and not ally Sena.
MNS chief Raj Thackeray greets Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde with a flower bouquet (Source: Maharashtra Navnirman Sena Twitter handle @mnsadhikrut)
BJP has compulsions in Maharashtra politics
While Raj Thackeray and the BJP do not have a history of rosy ties, the political reality of Maharashtra has brought them closer, if not together. Even though the MNS has failed to become a potent force electorally since its inception in 2006, the split in the Shiv Sena and the NDA’s disappointing performance in the general elections earlier this year have in a way pushed the BJP to seek an alternative in the MNS’s identity politics. The BJP perhaps also wants to ensure that the divided Sena doesn’t revive itself through a possible reconciliation between the Thackeray cousins – Raj and Uddhav – and hence is keen to get closer to the MNS chief.
The decision of Manoj Jarange Patil to support Maratha candidates is another reason that has left the BJP worried. The saffron party faced adversity in the Marathawada region in eastern Maharashtra in the Lok Sabha elections. With nearly 50 Assembly seats up for grabs in that region, the BJP would be hoping to cash in on the ‘Maratha Asmita’ sentiment that Thackeray carries with him.
BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis, the deputy chief minister of Maharashtra, remarked recently that the MNS chief had “embraced the path of Hindutva”.
Thackeray, who blew hot and cold against Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the past decade after backing the latter for the top post in 2014, has also changed his course of action. He has not been as vocal against the North Indians of late as he used to be in the initial years, which had compelled the BJP to maintain a distance from him keeping its poll prospects in key states such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in mind.
He eulogised Modi after the PM inaugurated the Ram Mandir in January this year and offered the NDA support in the Lok Sabha elections even though the MNS is yet to win its first seat in parliament. More recently, he slammed Shinde and Ajit Pawar, accusing them of taking control of the original Sena and NCP, respectively, but did not target the BJP.
While there was once a fierce competition between the BJP and the Sena over who follows the real Hindutva, Maharashtra politics has undergone a big change now. With the Sena split and the MVA alliance aiming to repeat the Opposition’s general election performance, the BJP has banked on the ‘Marathi manoos’ appeal. And who to befriend the most in this venture than Raj Thackeray, a staunch supporter of Hindutva who swears by the Marathi identity.
With inputs from agencies
Image source: Multiple agencies
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