What Trump's Return Could Mean for Global Politics and Economics ?

TO NEW LEVELS

In his first term, Trump was famous for his "America First" approach, as if he was "Mr. Tariff." This time, he wants to become "Master Tariff," introducing the steepest tariffs: 60 percent on all Chinese imports and 100 percent on Chinese cars, besides 20 percent on other countries' products. If these plans materialize, other countries could retaliate with their respective tariffs and inflame trade tensions across the globe, making economies shift toward bilateral agreements instead of multilateral ones.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR INDIA?

Modi and Trump are indeed warm buddies due to their strong alliance, which may culminate in the mutual good of both nations. With the economic protectionist policies of Trump, is India waiting for that much needed economic boom? Only time will tell whether this is a friendship that will fetch high tangible gains to the economy.

TOUGHER ON CHINA

China was already in the crosshairs of the Biden administration regarding all things tech-related exports. The Trump advisors are actually contemplating a total economic break from China, although that will be hard to do fully. But still, Trump would be tougher on China than it had been hitherto-not just on trade but in checking what some people in the U.S. call China's influence within America.

UKRAINE ON A TIGHT LEASH

Trump's stance on Ukraine is clear: no free military aid. Instead, he'll likely be trying to force Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, possibly to persuade Kyiv to give up some of its disputed territories. Trump will likely come out against the continuing push by Ukraine to enter NATO and will have the possibility to swing the security landscape in Europe.

NETANYAHU'S BIGGEST SUPPORTER

Trump would find a close ally in Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Trump, as far back as his support for Jerusalem as Israel's capital and tolerance of an aggressive posture against Iran, suits Netanyahu's agenda well. The question: does he stay behind Israel's aggressive moves if Netanyahu targets Iran's nuclear sites?

CLIMATE CHANGE TAKES A BACK SEAT

Climate concerns, dismissed by Trump, "drill, baby, drill" with fossil fuels, not green tech, probably appeal to him. Unlike multilateral climate commitments, a domestically policy-based approach focused on the boost of hydrocarbon industries may encourage him. Policy analysts might argue otherwise, but betting on Trump for environmental reforms may be a long shot.

LESS PREACHY, MORE HANDS-OFF

This means Trump is unlikely to lecture other countries on human rights or minority issues. He doesn't see spreading American values around the world as a priority. This could be a relief for some nations but may challenge NATO countries, especially European allies, to step up and manage their affairs without heavy U.S. intervention.

Inputs by Agencies 

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