Many nations are gearing up for elections in 2024, with voting set to take place in over 64 countries and the European Union. However, Tech Giant Microsoft is cautioning about China's AI influence on the upcoming elections. China's influence on Taiwan elections indicates that the threat is huge. However, The implications of China's experimentation with AI-driven influence operations extend beyond Taiwan, raising concerns about the integrity of democratic processes worldwide.
Microsoft's threat intelligence team warns that China and North Korea's state-backed cyber groups plan to use AI to manipulate public opinion during the 2024 elections. They aim to spread AI-generated content on social media platforms to influence voters in India, the US, and South Korea. This tactic was tested during Taiwan's presidential election. Microsoft expects these groups to target high-profile elections in 2024, with North Korean involvement.
The latest insights from Microsoft Threat Intelligence, as detailed in the East Asia report, were released by the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center (MTAC) on Friday.
What does the report say?
In a blog post, Microsoft cited its report on 'Threat Intelligence insights' to explain how China "is using fake social media accounts to poll voters on what divides them most to sow division and possibly influence the outcome of the US presidential election in its favour.”
“As populations in India, South Korea and the United States head to the polls, we are likely to see Chinese cyber and influence actors, and to some extent North Korean cyber actors, work toward targeting these elections,” the report reads.
The report said, "Chinese cyber and influence actors, and to some extent North Korean cyber actors," will work towards targeting elections in "India, South Korea, and the United States".
“While the impact of such content in swaying audiences remains low, China’s increasing experimentation in augmenting memes, videos and audio will continue – and may prove effective down the line,” said Microsoft
Taiwan Election is a Testament
Taiwan and China have been making headlines, for their ongoing tensions on issues including South China Sea, US involvement, China’s territorial claims, etc. Recently, Taiwan held its presidential election in January, where China's experimental use of artificial intelligence (AI) to sway the outcome of elections was observed, as per Microsoft.
According to the report, a group with Beijing support by the name of Storm 1376, also known as Spamouflage, used advanced AI-generated content to sway Taiwan's presidential election Microsoft's research indicates that Storm 1376 was extremely active during Taiwan's election, using a variety of strategies to sway public opinion.
One such incident concerned the distribution of artificial intelligence (AI) produced audio clips on YouTube that were allegedly made by Terry Gou, the independent Party candidate who dropped out of the contest in November 2023. These clips showed Gou supporting a different candidate even though he had never said such things. This is a blatant example of the misleading potential of artificial intelligence-generated content.
Moreover, Storm 1376 coordinated a flurry of AI-generated memes directed at William Lai, the pro-sovereignty candidate Beijing ultimately opposed and who ultimately prevailed. These memes spread false accusations of embezzlement against Lai in an effort to damage his reputation and sway voters' opinions.
Furthermore, the group disseminated unverified rumours regarding Lai's personal life by using AI-generated TV news anchors, a strategy that Iran had previously used.
Here’s How it can Influence Elections beyond Taiwan!
According to Microsoft, China is probably going to use social media to spread AI-generated content that will influence voters to support their interests during these elections.
1. Divide Voters: Microsoft stated that Chinese groups persist in conducting influence campaigns within the US. These actors, allegedly supported by Beijing, utilise social media platforms to pose "divisive questions" and seek to comprehend the issues dividing American voters. “This could be to gather intelligence and precision on key voting demographics ahead of the US Presidential election,” said Microsoft in a blog post accompanying the report.
2. Manipulate: This organisation, which has ties to the Chinese Communist Party, disseminated AI-generated material, such as memes and faux audio endorsements, with the intention of harming certain politicians and manipulating voters' opinions.
3. Targeting Major issues: The Microsoft Threat Intelligence report suggests China is using generative AI to influence and sow division on various topics, from domestic issues in the US like train derailments to international concerns like nuclear wastewater disposal.
4. Impersonation: Additionally, CCP-affiliated social media accounts are posing as Americans across the political spectrum to engage with authentic users' comments
5. False Narrative: The Microsoft report includes a picture depicting Storm-1376 posting videos in both Mandarin and English, alleging US and Indian involvement in unrest in Myanmar.
6. AI generated Anchors: One tactic is to use TV news anchors created by AI. The report also highlights that the same AI-generated anchor featured in these videos was utilised in a Storm-1376 campaign targeting Taiwan.
7. Military: North Korea is stepping up cyber operations, focusing on cryptocurrency theft and supply chain attacks for military funding. They're also adopting AI to boost efficiency and potentially develop new military capabilities, using large-language models (LLMs) for their activities.
Conclusion
Ahead of elections in the World’s oldest democracy, US and world’s largest democracy, India, the manipulation and spread of false information via Artificial intelligence raises questions. The highly convincing AI produces content that can cost nations their democracy. Moreover sovereignty and national security of nations will be in danger with any foreign interference.
Given India’s relation with China and it being our immediate neighbour, It's crucial for governments, tech firms, and civil society to stay alert against AI-driven misinformation. Strong measures are needed to detect and counter these threats, protecting democratic elections and maintaining voter trust.
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