Syrian Civil War Reignites As Aleppo Falls Again: All you need to know

The Syrian Civil War, which began in 2011, has been one of the most devastating and complex conflicts in the 21st century. It has involved multiple international actors, countless internal factions, and significant human suffering.

Origin and Causes of the Syrian Civil War

The roots of the Syrian Civil War can be traced to the broader Arab Spring uprisings that began in late 2010. In the context of widespread dissatisfaction with oppressive regimes, many Syrians took to the streets in protest against President Bashar al-Assad’s authoritarian rule. However, unlike in other countries where protests led to relatively swift changes, the situation in Syria escalated into a full-scale civil war due to a combination of factors:

• Authoritarianism: President Bashar al-Assad's regime had long been characterized by political repression, lack of civil liberties, and the suppression of opposition groups.

• Economic Crisis: Syria had been struggling with economic hardship, including rising unemployment and inflation, which fueled discontent among ordinary Syrians.

• Sectarian Divisions: Syria is home to a mix of religious and ethnic groups, including Sunni Arabs, Alawites, Kurds, Christians, and Druze. The Assad regime, which is led by the Alawite minority, had exacerbated sectarian tensions, making it difficult for the country to unite under one banner.

• Arab Spring Influence: The popular uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, and other countries inspired Syrians to demand their own rights, leading to mass protests in March 2011.

The Escalation of Conflict

The protests against Assad’s regime were initially peaceful, but the government’s violent response triggered a nationwide uprising. Security forces and military personnel were deployed to suppress demonstrations, leading to increased militarization of the opposition. By mid-2011, the conflict had shifted from protests to armed conflict, as rebels formed militias and began to fight back against government forces.

Key Events in the Early Stages (2011-2013)

• March 2011: Protests begin in Daraa after the arrest and torture of a group of teenagers for painting anti-government graffiti.

• April 2011: The Syrian government, led by Assad, begins cracking down on protesters, resulting in deaths and injuries.

• July 2011: The Syrian National Council is formed by exiled political figures, calling for an end to Assad's rule.

• 2012: The war expands, with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and other rebel factions fighting against Assad’s military, while the regime continues to use airstrikes and artillery.

Key Players in the Syrian Civil War

The conflict has been characterized by a complex array of factions, each with different objectives, political ideologies, and international allegiances. Broadly, these groups can be categorized into pro-government forces, opposition factions, and extremist groups.

• Pro-Government Forces:

1. Syrian Arab Army (SAA): Led by Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian Army has been the primary military force defending the regime. It has relied heavily on support from foreign allies, including Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah.

2. Hezbollah: The Lebanese militant group, closely aligned with Iran, has played a crucial role in assisting Assad’s regime, both militarily and politically.

• Opposition Forces:

The Syrian Kurds, led by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), played a crucial role in the fight against ISIS, the extremist group that emerged during the war. While the Kurds were not initially involved in the fight against Assad, they eventually became key allies of the United States and its coalition in the battle against ISIS, securing autonomous regions in northeastern Syria.

1. Free Syrian Army (FSA): Formed by defected military officers in 2011, the FSA sought to overthrow Assad’s regime and establish a democratic government. However, the group was fragmented, lacked coordination, and faced internal divisions.

2. Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): Primarily Kurdish, the SDF emerged as a key player in the fight against ISIS, receiving substantial support from the U.S., including airstrikes and military supplies.

3. National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces: Representing various opposition groups, this coalition struggled to unify the fragmented opposition and secure consistent international support.

• Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS):

ISIS, also known as ISIL, emerged as a major force in the conflict by 2013-2014. It capitalized on the chaos of the civil war to capture large swaths of territory across Syria and Iraq. The group aimed to establish a "caliphate" across the region and was notorious for its brutal tactics, including public executions, slavery, and terrorism.

1. Rise of ISIS: In 2013, the Islamic State (ISIS) began expanding its territory in Syria, taking advantage of the chaos caused by the civil war. By 2014, ISIS controlled large swathes of territory in both Syria and Iraq.

2. Defeat of ISIS: After years of intense fighting, ISIS was largely defeated by the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in 2019, though remnants of the group continue to operate in pockets of the country.

• Foreign Powers and Intervention

The Syrian Civil War attracted the intervention of multiple global powers, each with its own interests, contributing to the conflict’s prolonged nature and complexity.

1. Russia: A staunch ally of Assad, Russia intervened militarily in 2015, providing crucial air support and turning the tide in favor of the Syrian regime. Russia provided military aid, including air support, and helped Assad maintain power. Iran sent military advisors and fighters from its allied proxy groups, such as Hezbollah, to support the Assad regime.

2. Iran: Iran’s support for Assad has been multifaceted, including direct military involvement and mobilizing proxy forces like Hezbollah and Iraqi militias. Iran's involvement also had a sectarian dimension, as Iran's Shiite clerical regime sought to maintain the strategic alliance with Assad, who is part of the Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam.

3. The United States and NATO Allies: The United States, along with Western allies like the UK and France, initially supported the opposition groups in their fight against Assad. This support included non-lethal aid, such as weapons, medical supplies, and training for rebel forces. In 2013, the U.S. and its allies considered military intervention after a chemical weapons attack in Ghouta, but decided against it, opting instead for a diplomatic resolution brokered by Russia.

4. Turkey: Concerned about Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria, Turkey has supported various rebel factions and launched military operations against Kurdish forces, complicating peace efforts.

The Human Cost of the Conflict

The human toll of the war has been staggering. The conflict has resulted in one of the worst humanitarian crises in recent history, with millions of Syrians displaced both internally and abroad.

• Deaths: As of 2024, the war has claimed over 580,000 to over 617,910 lives including 219,223 to 306,887 civilians with millions more injured. The vast majority of those killed have been civilians, caught in the crossfire of airstrikes, artillery bombardments, ground battles, shelling, and chemical weapons attacks. 

• Displacement: Over 14 million Syrians have been displaced, including 6.7 million refugees who have fled the country. Neighbouring countries, especially Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan, have borne the brunt of the refugee crisis.

• Territorial Control: Approximately 30% of Syria remains under opposition control, highlighting the country’s fractured state.

• Chemical Attacks: One of the most horrifying aspects of the Syrian Civil War has been the use of chemical weapons. The Assad regime has been accused of using chemical weapons against civilians in attacks such as the Ghouta massacre in 2013 and the Khan Shaykhun attack in 2017, drawing international outrage. In 2013, a deadly sarin gas attack in Ghouta, near Damascus, killed hundreds of people. The attack led to widespread international condemnation. The U.S. and its allies threatened military intervention but instead pursued a diplomatic solution, resulting in the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile, though allegations of chemical attacks have continued to surface throughout the conflict.

• Humanitarian Aid: The ongoing conflict has made it difficult to deliver humanitarian aid to those in need, especially in besieged areas and regions controlled by hostile forces.

• 2011

1. March: Protests erupt in Daraa, escalating into nationwide demonstrations.

2. July: The Free Syrian Army (FSA) forms in response to government crackdowns.

3. August: President Assad faces growing international condemnation.

4. November: The Arab League suspends Syria’s membership.

5. December: The UN estimates more than 5,000 Syrians have died.

• 2012
  The war intensifies, with Syrian forces fighting various rebel factions in urban centres like Aleppo and Homs. A series of suicide bombings and attacks target government buildings.

• 2013
  The rise of ISIS; Chemical weapons attacks in Ghouta, shocks the world and provoke international outrage. The U.S. considers military intervention but opts for a diplomatic route, with Russia brokering an agreement for Syria to destroy its chemical weapons.

• 2014
  ISIS emerges as a major threat, capturing large parts of Syria and Iraq, and declaring a "caliphate." The U.S. leads an international coalition against ISIS.

• 2015
  Russia intervenes in the conflict, providing air support to the Assad regime. The refugee crisis worsens, with millions fleeing Syria.

• 2016
  Aleppo falls to pro-Assad forces after intense fighting and becomes the focal point of the war, with intense battles between Syrian forces and rebel groups. Russia, Iran, and Turkey push for a ceasefire.

• 2017
  The U.S. launches missile strikes on Syria in response to another chemical weapons attack. ISIS is largely driven out of Syria but continues to carry out attacks.

• 2018
  The U.S. begins withdrawing its troops from northern Syria, leaving the Kurds vulnerable to a Turkish invasion. The Syrian government retakes large parts of the country, but the war continues in pockets of resistance.

• 2019
  ISIS loses its last stronghold in Syria, though the group continues to operate.

• 2020
  Turkey launches military operations in northern Syria against Kurdish forces. Tensions remain high, particularly in Idlib, the last rebel-held stronghold. The humanitarian crisis continues, with millions in need of aid.

• 2021
  Syria faces ongoing instability, with a fragile ceasefire and pockets of resistance against Assad’s regime.

• 2022-2023
  Assad's government regains control over most of the country, but fighting persists in the north and east. Political solutions remain elusive, with no comprehensive peace agreement in sight.

Challenges to Resolution and the Path Forward

The road to peace in Syria remains uncertain. Despite numerous ceasefires, peace talks, and attempts at negotiations, the war continues, marked by the continued presence of foreign troops and competing international interests. Several key factors contribute to the ongoing conflict:

• Protracted Nature of the Conflict: The war has devolved into a drawn-out war of attrition, with no side achieving a decisive victory.

• Divisions Among the Opposition: The fragmented opposition has been unable to form a unified front, weakening their position in negotiations and prolonging the conflict.

• Foreign Intervention: The involvement of foreign powers such as Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the U.S. has complicated efforts to bring about a resolution, each pursuing its own interests in Syria.

• Humanitarian Impact: The suffering of civilians continues, with millions displaced and many living in uncertainty, as reconstruction efforts remain minimal.

Reasons Behind the Latest Flare-Up

• The Role of the Military Operations Command

On November 27, 2024, the rebel coalition known as the Military Operations Command initiated a rapid advance through villages surrounding Aleppo. This coalition now controls a significant portion of the city, encountering little resistance during their offensive. This development underscores the vacuum left by the Assad government, which has been weakened as its key allies are preoccupied with other conflicts:

1. Russia: Assad's primary supporter, since its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has diverted substantial manpower and resources away from Syria.

2. Iran: Another critical ally, has faced repeated assaults by Israel, leading to substantial setbacks for Hezbollah, its proxy, have further diminished Iran’s support for Assad.

• Aerial Offensive in Response

In reaction to the rebels’ advance, Russian and Syrian air forces launched an offensive targeting Aleppo and Idlib provinces. The loss of Aleppo is a severe setback for Assad’s forces. Historically Syria’s economic hub and one of the world’s oldest continuously inhabited cities, Aleppo’s recapture by rebels represents a strategic and symbolic blow. With this development, the rebels have expanded their influence beyond Idlib, potentially triggering a cascade of further events.

Who Are the Rebels?

The new rebel coalition is a diverse mix of opposition factions, encompassing both Islamist and moderate groups:

• Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS): Formerly affiliated with al-Qaeda, HTS has claimed a leadership role in the offensive.

• Syrian National Army: Despite its name, this group operates as a Turkish proxy.

• Turkish and U.S.-backed Groups: Various factions supported by Turkey and previously by the U.S. have joined the coalition.

• SDF: The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), primarily composed of Kurdish fighters from the People’s Protection Units (YPG), are expanding their territory on Aleppo’s eastern side. Turkey’s stance complicates the situation, as it views the YPG as an extension of a terrorist organization.

Who Controls What in Syria?

Years of civil war, proxy battles, and ISIS’s invasion have left Syria fragmented into zones of control:

• Government Control: The Assad regime governs over 60% of the country, largely supported by external allies like Russia and Iran.

• Opposition-Controlled Areas: Northwest Syria, including parts of Idlib and Aleppo provinces, remains under opposition control.

• Kurdish-Led Northeast: Backed by the U.S., this area is dominated by Kurdish militias.

• ISIS Sleeper Cells: Though losing their last stronghold in 2019, ISIS continues sporadic attacks from desert hideouts.

What Could Happen Next?

• Turkish Involvement: Turkey, having supported its Syrian partners in this offensive, may help them consolidate their gains. However, clashes between Turkish-backed groups and the SDF, labeled a terrorist organization by Turkey, have already been reported.

• HTS’s Controversial Role: HTS, despite its efforts to rebrand as a governance and military-focused entity, remains accused of tolerating radical activities within its ranks. This raises concerns about the group’s long-term objectives and stability.

• Southern Revolts: Other parts of Syria, particularly the restive south, could follow Aleppo’s lead in revolting. Such developments, however, may hinge on external support from countries like Jordan, which remains cautious about conflict spilling over its borders.

A Conflict Without End

The Syrian Civil War has shattered the country, creating profound geopolitical, humanitarian, and economic consequences. Despite efforts at diplomacy and numerous ceasefire agreements, the conflict has shown little sign of abating. As of 2024, Syria is a deeply fractured nation, with no clear resolution in sight. The involvement of foreign powers, the rise of extremist groups, and the ongoing displacement of millions make the Syrian Civil War one of the most intractable conflicts of the modern era.

The future of Syria depends on many factors, including international negotiations, reconstruction efforts, and the ability to address the deep-rooted political and sectarian divisions that have fueled the violence. As the war enters its second decade, the hope for lasting peace remains uncertain, but the lessons learned from this conflict may shape the approach to future wars and humanitarian interventions.

With inputs from agencies

Image Source: Multiple agencies

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