The Belarusian defence ministry said on Monday that it will conduct live fire exercises and guided missile launches with the Russian forces. The Belarusian defence ministry had stated last week that Russian troops would deploy to the country to form a new "regional grouping." Belarus has claimed that Ukraine is preparing to attack its territory but has no evidence of Ukraine's intentions.
Belarus has managed to stay away from getting involved in the war against Ukraine for the last 8 months, but it has supported its neighbour Russia in the invasion ever since. Russian forces used Kyiv of Belarusian territory for their ineffectual march in February this year. Minsk which is the capital of Belarus is also considered an administrative centre empowered by Russia with much support such as medical care, logistics support, supply lines, and also airfields to launch an air attack on Ukraine. The shipments of Belarusian tanks and ammunition have also been observed to be made to occupy Donbas and Crimea.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko who was silent on the involvement in the war has recently given some hints that his country might join the fighting in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Lukashenko has accused Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine of trying to carry out sabotage, and terrorist attacks and to organise a military mutiny in the country by training Belarusian radicals.
This step of Belarus shows a crucial uprising in the role of Belarus in the war to date. It is surely indicating that Lukashenko is readying the Belarusian public for war against Ukraine. Since the beginning of the war, the people have stood strongly against the deployment of the Belarusian armed forces to fight in Ukraine.
Though the direct involvement in the war can be risky for the administration in Minsk and even for the Kremlin as well. Belarusian troops lack war experience, lack morale and would be fairly small in number to make a reasonable impact on the war. In such a scenario, opening a new fighting front along Belarus’s border with a lack of well-trained troops may turn out to be more of an asset than a liability.
It is not clear what exactly this could entail in military terms and how big the force would be. But a “rapid deployment”, which Lukashenko referred to, usually involves bringing troop numbers up to full strength, intensifying intelligence activities, setting up communication and operational systems, and strengthening combat readiness, among other things.
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