The El Niño phenomenon is a significant climatic event that is manifested through the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It disturbs global weather patterns and results in several climatic impacts, especially in regions like India. This article tries to explain what El Niño is, its history over India, the current scenario, and the future forecast.
Image Source - NASA
What is El Niño?
El Niño falls under a bigger climate pattern of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, also known as ENSO, which comprises both El Niño warm and cool phases, known as La Niña. The El Niño event leads to weakening trade winds, which cause the piling up of warm water into the eastern Pacific. The disturbance causes changes in atmospheric circulation with extreme weather events globally-droughts and floods-included.
Historical Significance of El Niño on India
Monsoon rains are essential for the Indian agricultural sector as they provide about 70% of the annual rainfall. According to history, El Niño has been associated with less-than-average monsoon rainfall in India. Among the 13 significant droughts that occurred after 1950, 10 fell during the years of El Niño7. This occurred in the May 2023 to December 2023 cycle, and hence the dry monsoon was severe across many states with drought.
Key Historical Events
- 1982-83 : One of the strongest El Niños gave a disastrous scenario of drought conditions all over India.
- 1997-98 : Another intense El Niño caused massive crop damage due to the agricultural losses caused by this climate phenomenon.
- 2015: Erratic monsoon and thus erratic rainfall with a low crop yield.
Current situation: El Niño 2024
As of early 2024, India is already feeling the impact of a strong El Niño event. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), temperatures are likely to remain above normal until May, and forecasts suggest that heat waves may surge from February to June. The current El Niño is one of the five strongest on record and has already caused below-average rainfall during the ongoing monsoon season.
Expected Impacts:
- Heat Waves: Above normal temperatures are expected during pre-monsoon months.
- Drought Conditions: Many areas might face severe drought conditions since monsoon rains are expected to be below normal.
- Crop Risks: Crop output is expected to decline severely if the current trends prevail.
Image Source - Phys.org
Future Predictions: When Will It End?
El Niño, for the moment, appears likely to give way to neutral ENSO conditions around mid-2024. It may turn to La Niña in late summer. La Niña would normally contribute to higher rainfall over India and alleviate some of the drought experienced under El Niño.
Timeline for Transition
April-June 2024: The probability of El Niño transition to ENSO-neutral conditions.
June-August 2024: 62% chances of La Niña. That might lead to good monsoon conditions later in the season.
End Note
The El Niño phenomenon has significant implications for India's climate and agriculture. Considering its history of causing droughts and negatively affecting crop yields, it is necessary to understand its patterns for effective planning and mitigation strategies. As we look forward to potential changes with La Niña on the horizon, it remains important for policymakers and farmers alike to prepare for varying weather conditions that could significantly impact food security and economic stability.
With inputs from agencies
Image Source: Multiple agencies
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