The changing oil demand landscape is pointing towards India as the leading contributor to global growth, surpassing China, as the world moves towards a greener future. India's burgeoning population and evolving consumption patterns are expected to drive this growth, but unlike China, the adoption of electric vehicles in India is expected to be slower. Despite India's smaller oil network compared to China, it is likely to attract attention from traders and producers looking to capitalize on the declining global demand growth.
According to Parsley Ong, who leads the Asia energy and chemicals research division at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Hong Kong, India's population growth has been a crucial element that would inevitably position it as the primary contributor to global demand growth, surpassing China. Despite China's dominance as a consumer of commodities, such as crude oil, metals, and grains, its era of rapid economic expansion is drawing to a close, with China National Petroleum Corp. projecting a peak in oil consumption by 2030. As a result, the transition in demand growth leadership from China to India is anticipated in the near future.
Furthermore, India has emerged as a significant player in the oil market since the invasion of Ukraine over a year ago. India has become a major purchaser of Russian crude, which it processes into fuels that are frequently exported to other regions such as Europe and the United States.
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